Thinking Ahead
At the forefront of my mind is the future of the American economy.
Demographic is Secondary
Obvious to the most casual observer is the distinct link between population growth and public school populations.
Years of engineering shaped my worldview. Engineers look into the future to predict the success of current endeavors. I know. We annoy people who are obsessed with the now.
Think about every problem, every challenge, we face. The solution to each starts with education.
George H. W. Bush
To educate means “to develop the faculties and powers of (a person) by teaching, instruction, or schooling.”
Demographics are the foundation for future planning
Educational institutions arose to educate our burgeoning American population. Throughout the early years of the United States of America, large families were the rule, not the exception. One example is my paternal grandfather’s family. Grandfather Joseph White, a Civil War veteran, had nine children. My father, Joseph Noel, was the middle child.
Over the years, my two sisters and I married and had children. My elder sister, 2; my younger sister, 1; my family, 4. What does the correlation between overall population growth and birthrate teach us?
The year 2030 marks an important demographic turning point in U.S. history according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2017 National Population Projections. By 2030, all baby boomers will be older than age 65. This will expand the size of the older population so that 1 in every 5 residents will be retirement age.
“The aging of baby boomers means that within just a couple decades, older people are projected to outnumber children for the first time in U.S. history,” said Jonathan Vespa, a demographer with the U.S. Census Bureau.
In general, families are smaller today than in the 1800s when my father was born on February 24, 1894.
What is the root cause of a dramatically reduced birthrate? There are several factors to the declining birthrate. After the Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision, States legalizing abortion experienced a 4% decline in fertility relative to states where the legal status of abortion was unchanged. The rising cost of living, availability of birth-control pills, and fewer married young women also contribute to the decline in American fertility.
Quoting the National Institute of Health, National Library of Medicine: Roe v Wade and American Fertility, “A complete recriminalization of abortion nationwide could result in 440,000 additional births per year.”
The Obvious
The American fertility rate will continue to decline. There will be dramatic reductions in school-age children. The National Right to Life organization estimates that estimates that 64,443,118 abortions have been performed in the United States since 1973.
The TEXAS STANDARD, the National Daily News Show of Texas reported on February 13, 2023, Texas public schools expect decreases in student enrollment, raising budgeting questions.
My wife and I are well acquainted with the Lovejoy ISD in Lucas, Texas. Two of our grandchildren were educated there, both now college students. From my experience and unmistakable bias, I have to say the Lovejoy ISD is a terrific school system. Both grandchildren were band students and my wife and I attended all home games over several years.
The following text of this news story reflects the general attitudes of public school officials and school board members in Texas. I quote.
“Lovejoy ISD is closing its flagship elementary campus, part of a raft of recommendations the district is making to cover shortfalls totaling about $9 million over two school years.
Trustees voted unanimously April 25 to transition Carrie L. Lovejoy Elementary into a pre-K and early childhood learning center with [the] district offices.
“This was not an easy night for the community or board,” president Chad Collins said, according to the minutes from the meeting.
Between 18 and 22 positions are subject to be cut with the consolidation, resulting in a savings of $1.3 million to $1.6 million, but it likely won’t result in layoffs, interim Superintendent Dennis Womack said. The district offered an incentive package for early resignations, and 35 teachers — including 13 elementary teachers — took advantage of the offer.
Dallas Morning News headline, June 4, 2021: Lovejoy ISD closing flagship elementary school to combat projected multimillion dollar shortfall
The Grand Exodus
Declining fertility is not the only reason for a public school population decline. Parents across Texas are choosing Home Schools, Church Schools, and Private Schools. Thousands of families turned to home school due to the unacceptable restrictions in Texas public schools during the COVID-19 pandemic.
News story, March 15, 2023: Texas families would get $8,000 in tax dollars to send students to private school in sweeping ‘parental rights’ bill backed by Lt. Gov. — “School-choice proponents have routinely cited teaching on sexual orientation and gender as a key justification for pulling their kids — and tax dollars — from public schools. The new bill would allow them to do so while also banning such teachings.”
News story, September 15, 2023: Record Numbers of Texas Students Leaving Public Schools for Homeschooling
My Opinion
Public school districts, in particular the Rockwall Independent School District, continues to sap the taxpayers for funding of high-cost buildings and extraneous services and departments within the district.
What follows is the text of a statement on Facebook by a RISD board member accompanied by my response. The name of the RISD board member is withheld. My goal is to expose the unwise funding of Rockwall ISD.
The following text was extracted from a Facebook posting and includes my response to the board member’s comment.
A Facebook Exchange With A Former RISD Board Member:
Former Board Member:
Now regarding the RISD Bond Package: Rockwall is one of the fastest growing counties in the country and many of our municipalities approve many housing developments.
The State of Texas rightly requires districts to educate the students in their district. If there is not enough room, then ugly, cold, hot, and unsafe portable buildings must be used. That money comes out of the GENERAL FUND leaving LESS money for teacher pay, supplies, books, etc.
My Response:
I assume by your comment … RISD board members are allowing substandard, unlawful, unsanitary factory-built classrooms to be used in our school district.Since 1974, I have engineered and installed HUNDREDS of indoor climate control systems for public school buildings, including factory-built classrooms.
In all these years not once have I encountered even ONE factory-built classroom that is dangerous, unsanitary, or uncomfortable.
Such dishonesty discredits you.
Her Response:
John White you assume incorrectly John. Not a surprise. These portables are as clean and safe as an unattached portable building can be. Not only are they lawful, they are required if there isn’t enough room in the buildings for the students. I’m sure you and the other people who build them do a very good job and great service to the fast growing communities that cannot keep up with the fast pace of their growth with regular buildings. The teachers do a GREAT job in making them attractive as possible. But they ARE colder in the winter. They ARE hotter in the summer. There is NO way to make them as safe as the hurricane safe built school buildings. No matter how hard a district tries, they are unattractive! And they are paid for out of the operating budget not bond money so they DO cause less money for teacher salaries, supplies etc.
I am no longer on the board but I still support what I believe is the best for our students and community. And that’s the honest truth, John. The honest truth.
My Second Response:
It was you who described the factory-built classrooms as unsafe. I quote your original text: ” If there is not enough room, then ugly, cold, hot, and unsafe portable buildings must be used.“
I did not describe the factory-built classrooms as unsafe. This was your description.
I agree with your modified statement. Yes, factory-built classrooms are safe year-round. Fortunately for the people of Rockwall, hurricanes are not a threat to us. Tornadoes are a threart, and for that reason, the district has in place procedures to move students to protected areas until a tornado passes by.
End of Facebook Discussion
A parting note on factory-built classrooms.
The quality of the product depends on the quality of the buyer’s specifications. When a school district purchases uncomfortable factory-built classrooms, the school district’s specifications are poorly and unprofessionally drafted.
The U.S. birthrate has been declining since the Great Depression.
How long have we seen a declining birthrate in the United States?
It’s been more than several years. While we did see low fertility rates during the Great Depression of the 1930s, this was followed by the Baby Boom (1947-64), which was characterized by high birthrates. Birthrates then declined through the early 1970s. They were relatively stable for a time. But since 2007, there has been a clear downward trend.
Currently, we have lower birthrates than during the Great Depression. In fact, birthrates are lower than they have ever been.
Michigan News, the University of Michigan, May 13, 2021: What’s behind the falling U.S. birthrate?
Economic Outlook
National debt exceeds $35.7 trillion. The national debt per citizen exceeds $105,972.
Financial experts and economists predict a GREATER Depression than the Great Depression. When? Some of the experts predict a depression in early 2025. Others expect this to happen by the end of this year of 2024.
The birthrate will continue to decline. The debt for the multi-million dollar school buildings must be paid and will like like an albatross about the necks of Rockwall ISD property owners.
A prudent man foresees the evil and hides himself,
but the simple pass on and are punished.
The leaders of the Rockwall Independent School District do not foresee the evil. Meanwhile, the IRS reschedules the income tax. Read: IRS Announces 2024 Tax Brackets, Standard Deductions And Other Inflation Adjustments
John White
Rockwall, Texas
John N. White 