Introduction
In this post, I point to the geophysical science, the underlying causality of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Documented geophysical research wholly disproves the widely disseminated theories of climate alarmists. Natural geophysical forces shape atmospheric phenomena. When you understand the awesome magnitude of the natural processes of planet Earth, the reader will understand the idolatrous worldview behind the theories of anthropogenic climate change.
Disclaimer
This post is not a political position paper but a Biblically-sound, scientifically-based study on the scale of and the indications of the forces behind the geophysical phenomenon known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Some Basic Facts
Fact: The El Niño atmospheric disturbance has nothing to do with the gaseous composition of the Earth’s atmosphere. Answers to your questions about this atmospheric phenomenon are found in documented geological documents linked herein.
Fact: Advocates for anthropogenic climate change/global warming narrowly search for evidence above the surface of the world’s oceans. The geological forces at work below the surface of the world’s oceans are well documented by U.S. government agencies.
Fact: The acrimonious political battle between the traditional left and right isn’t what has torn the country apart, rather it’s the fault of the dark and ruthless forces on the “fringe.” — Dr. Phil McGraw, September 2, 2023
The Ring of Fire
The “Ring of Fire” is a circular arc of active volcanoes that surrounds the Pacific Ocean basin. Much is known about the volcanoes on land within the Ring of Fire (including the Aleutians, the Cascades, and the Andes), but little is known about the submarine volcanoes simply because they are hidden underwater. — NOAA EARTH-OCEAN INTERACTIONS PROGRAM
The “Ring of Fire”, also called the Circum-Pacific belt, is the zone of earthquakes surrounding the Pacific Ocean- about 90% of the world’s earthquakes occur there. — USGS Earthquake Hazards Program
Notice the correlation of the equator between the diagram of the Ring of Fire above and the subsurface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean along the equator in the image below.
Viewing the real-time ocean surface water temperature of the Pacific Ocean (below), do notice the equatorial water surface temperature is greater in the Western Pacific than in the Eastern Pacific?
What are El Niño and La Niña?
The full name of the El Niño phenomenon is the El Niño Southern Oscillation — ENSO.
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of a natural climate pattern across the tropical Pacific Ocean that average swings back and forth every 3-7 years. Together, they are called ENSO (pronounced “en-so”), which is short for El Niño-Southern Oscillation.
The ENSO pattern in the tropical Pacific can be in one of three states: El Niño, Neutral, or La Niña. El Niño (the warm phase) and La Niña (the cool phase) lead to significant differences in the average ocean temperatures, winds, surface pressure, and rainfall across parts of the tropical Pacific. Neutral indicates that conditions are near their long-term average. — Climate.gov El Niño and La Niña: Frequently asked questions
The Western Pacific Warm Pool
Magma produced by the Ring of Fire is hot, very hot. The magma-heated ocean water, less dense than cold water, naturally rises toward the surface.
Temperatures range from approximately 500 K (227 °C; 440 °F) at the upper boundary with the crust to approximately 4,200 K (3,930 °C; 7,100 °F) at the core-mantle boundary.[12] The highest temperature of the upper mantle is 1,200 K (930 °C; 1,700 °F).[13] Although the high temperature far exceeds the melting points of the mantle rocks at the surface, the mantle is almost exclusively solid.[14] — Wikipedia: Upper Mantle
The rotation of the Earth from West to East and friction between the lithosphere and the water draws the warm surface water toward the East. As surface water cools, it becomes more dense than the warm water and sinks down. Ocean water at the Equator always flows from West to East. Following the positive displacement principle, surface waters to either side of the Equator flow from East to West.
Pacific Ocean currents flow cooler water to the west and warm water to the east.
This body of water, which spans the western waters of the equatorial Pacific to the eastern Indian Ocean, holds the warmest seawaters in the world. Scientists found that, over a period of roughly two decades, the warm pool’s average annual temperatures and dimensions increase and then decrease like a slowly pulsating beacon…For the past three years researchers based at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, led by atmospheric scientist Vikram Mehta, have been trying to unravel some of the questions surrounding the warm pool. They have been poring over atmospheric and sea surface temperature data from the western Pacific to the eastern United States looking for answers as to why the warm pool oscillates and what effects this oscillation may have on the world’s climate. What they found is that the warm pool’s vacillations may be felt as far away as Arkansas and may be powerful enough to broaden the extent of El Niño. — NASA Earth Observatory, July 24, 2001: Reverberations of the Pacific Warm Pool
Key Points
- The temperature anomalies over [the] western Pacific warm pool in part explain the El Niño-Southern Oscillation asymmetry in occurrence frequency and intensity
- The anomalous cooling over [the] western Pacific warm pool during summer and autumn greatly amplifies the amplitude of El Niño
- A colder western Pacific warm pool with successive westerly wind bursts implies a greater probability of Eastern Pacific El Niño
Plain Language Summary
The western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) is the warmest area of the open oceans and global heat reservoir with high sea surface temperature (SST) usually warmer than 28°C accompanied by active deep convection. The temperature variation over the WPWP is closely linked with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant interannual climate mode in tropical Pacific. This study elucidates the above linkage from the perspective of ENSO asymmetry and diversity. Firstly, we select 12 cold and 13 warm WPWP episodes averaged from July to October. The occurrence probability of El Niño events after cold WPWP episodes is larger than that of La Niña events following warm WPWP episodes. The westerlies associated with cold WPWP episodes are much stronger and located eastwards than the easterlies for warm WPWP episodes, exerting more effective influence on the SST variation in central-eastern equatorial Pacific. On the other hand, the El Niño events tend to be stronger when the cold anomalies over WPWP are stronger. Furthermore, we highlight the implication of WPWP on El Niño flavors with a greater probability of EP-type El Niño under a colder WPWP state and successive westerly wind bursts. — Journal of Geophysical Research Article, November 23, 2021: Warm and Cold Episodes in Western Pacific Warm Pool and Their Linkage With ENSO Asymmetry and Diversity
The ENSO Outlook and its Destructive Effects
My Opinion
The diminishing westerlies are not a cause of the ENSO but a consequence of warm pool heating. The video above attributes the variability of the westerlies as the cause of the Western Pacific warm pool. I offer no argument against the description of the Westerlies by the creator of the above video. Absent from the ENSO stated cause in the video is the heating of the warm pool by the heat from the Ring of Fire added to the heat generator by equatorial solar radiation. The variability of the westerlies is a contributor to the oscillation of the La Niña/El Niño.
Be mindful of the unseen but enormously significant terrestrial rotational force, the Coriolis effect. The speed of the Earth’s surface at mean sea level (MSL) along the Equator is 1,037 miles per hour (MPH) or 1668.890 kilometers per hour (KPH). This is why the equatorial surface current is always West to East.
If the Earth did not rotate and remained stationary, the atmosphere would circulate between the poles (high-pressure areas) and the equator (a low-pressure-area) in a simple back-and-forth pattern. NOAA: The Coriolis Effect
How accurate are long-term weather forecasts? According to NOAA, “A seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time, and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.” The video creator’s prediction that “El Niño 2024 is About to CHANGE Your Weather FOREVER” has much less than a 50% chance of coming true.
The video creator’s prediction may or may not manifest because the singular greatest force in the universe holds the ultimate authority over our weather phenomena.
The distance of the Earth from the Sun, the life-sustaining water and carbon cycles, and the constructs and complex processes of our DNA are irrefutable proofs of intelligent design. “Information comes from intelligence.”
Scriptural References
- Genesis 1:1-24 In the beginning God created the heavens and the earth. [more]
- Genesis 1:26-29 Then God said, “Let us make man in our image…So God created man in His own image;
in the image of God He created him; male and female He created them. [more] - Job 37:3 He lets it loose under the whole heaven, and His lightning unto the ends of the earth.
- Job 37:6 For He says to the snow, ‘Come on the earth,’ likewise to the gentle rain and to the heavy rain of His strength.
- Job 37:10-13 By the breath of God frost is given, and the broad waters are frozen. Also He loads the thick clouds with moisture; He scatters His bright clouds, and they are turned about by His guidance, that they may do whatever He commands them upon the face of the inhabited earth. He causes it to come, whether for correction, or for His land or for mercy.
- Amos 4:7 I also withheld the rain from you, when there were still three months to the harvest. I would send rain on one town, and send no rain on another town. One field would receive rain, but another field without rain would wither.
- Zechariah 10:1 Ask for rain from the Lord during the season of the latter spring rains. And the Lord will make the storm winds; and He will give them showers of rain; all will have vegetation in the field.
- John 3:8 The wind blows where it wishes, and you hear its sound, but you do not know where it comes from or where it goes. So it is with everyone who is born of the Spirit.
- Proverbs 3:19-20 The Lord by wisdom has founded the earth; by understanding He has established the heavens; by His knowledge the depths are broken up, and the clouds drop down the dew.
- Exodus 14:21 Then Moses stretched out his hand over the sea, and the Lord caused the sea to go back by a strong east wind all that night, and made the sea dry land, so that the waters were divided.
“The more I study science, the more I believe in God.” — Albert Einstein
John White
Rockwall, Texas
Our Saturday evening Life Group is open to all, married or single, of all ages, Muslim seekers, homosexuals desiring freedom, persons suffering physical or emotional distress, and young adults needing answers to career choices. You will encounter a welcoming community.
Join us at the Rockwall Campus of Lakepointe Church in Room W304 (see map), 7:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m.
For your convenience, pre-register your children via this link: LP KIDS PRE-REGISTRATION
Parking on the upper level of the west side parking garage is convenient to both Room W304 and the LP Kids classrooms.
Church membership is not a prerequisite.
John N. White 