Dallas Crime: Correlation ≠ Causation

The Dallas Express, August 10, 2024 — Paula Blackmon, Gay Donnell Willis Scaremonger Over Growing DPD

Council Members Paula Blackmon and Gay Donnell Willis appeared to engage in some fearmongering during a Dallas City Council discussion over a charter amendment proposition that, if approved by voters, would increase the number of officers fielded by the Dallas Police Department.

The proposition in question was one put forward by the nonprofit Dallas HERO, which got enough signatures from residents to put the measure on the ballot. Petition signatories registered their support for an amendment to the Dallas City Charter that would make DPD pay competitive, require the City to maintain at least 4,000 peace officers, and compel officials to shore up the Dallas Police and Fire Pension System.

Only around 3,000 officers are currently in the field, despite a prior City analysis advising that a force of roughly 4,000 is needed to properly police a jurisdiction the size of Dallas.

Analysis

Dallas City Council members Blackmon and Wills are mistaken. They correlate an increase in police with an increase in crime in the City. They mistakenly believe that increasing police presence directly results in higher crime rates, which is a common misconception.

Their thinking would be reasonable if the City of Dallas was in Mexico. Mexican people say, “If you are robbed and call the police, you will be robbed twice.”

There is a range of causes for crime in Dallas.

• Criminal illegal aliens (Texas DPS: Texas Criminal Illegal Noncitizen Data)
• The pervasive use of illicit drugs and mental health problems (drug-related crime in the Dallas area is 4.763 per 1,000 residents during a standard year)
• Fatherless families (National Fatherhood Initiative, 2023)
  • 63% of youth suicides are from fatherless homes (U.S. Dept. Of Health/Census) – 5 times the average.
  • 90% of all homeless and runaway children are from fatherless homes – 32 times the average.
  • 85% of all children who show behavior disorders come from fatherless homes – 20 times the average. (Center for Disease Control)
  • 80% of rapists with anger problems come from fatherless homes –14 times the average. (Justice & Behavior, Vol 14, p. 403-26)
  • 71% of all high school dropouts come from fatherless families
• Lazy judges
• Under-staffed Police Department

Action

First and foremost, pray for your elected City Council members. Ask God to raise up wise and effective candidates.

Second, citizens of the City of Dallas must educate themselves on the issues affecting their respective neighborhoods.

Support innercity ministries like CARE Center Ministries.

John White
Rockwall, Texas